Summit Fever: When Stocks Feel Like Mountains
Summit Fever describes a phenomenon where a mountain-climber approaches the summit of a climb they become more likely to take outsized risks. The achievement of reaching the peak becomes such a part of their identity that they are willing to take imprudent measures they would otherwise decide against. A large number of climber deaths have been attributed to this onset of irrationality. It’s not a hard task to draw parallels between this behavior and investors with concentrated stock positions, such as employees with equity compensation, heading into 2022.
With markets at the high in late 2021, it was not uncommon for many corporate leaders to be increasing forecasts. The company stock that was once a unicorn by going to $100, suddenly had guidance anticipating $200 in the next 12 months. For many employees with equity awards, restricted stocks, and options their accounts had balances higher than they might have ever imagined.
Even still, this doesn’t stop human psychology from jumping to the “what-ifs” of an even higher stock price. The summit was moving before their eyes and as we know now, the air was getting thinner. Like the climbers, for some of these individuals their identities had become entwined with being the person who struck it big on a stock, achieved complete financial independence, and retired early.
Unlike a mountain’s peak that is observable, the market’s peak is constantly moving. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has hit an all-time high 858 times, more than 25 times in an average year. Seventy of these days occurred in 2021. Even the most experienced investor is forced to fight recency bias in these environments.
The first half of 2022 brought many precipitous drops in stock valuations, especially amongst high-growth tech names. Given the experience of the first 6 months of this year, it’s only normal for many to feel some sense of trauma. Unfortunately, that can also breed a behavior more unique to investing—a fixation on the bottom. Many of the exuberant individuals of the past year now feel that their livelihood depends on perfectly timing the next dip. The reality is that this is no more true than it depended on knowing the high.
The documentary Meru (2015) tells the story of a group of climbers that are forced to call off a climb just 100 meters from the summit. Despite being so close to their goal they show tremendous discipline and turn back, living to attempt the climb another day, and ultimately succeeding (producing a tremendous film in the process). Had they pressed forward on the first attempt with a shortage of food, the return to the bottom could have easily become their biggest enemy. There’s a reason that 38% of deaths climbing Mount Everest actually occur on the descent, after the climbers have already reached the summit, it’s easy to forget about the second half of the equation.
As humans, we are much better served by good habits than by searching for a lottery ticket. When we’ve experienced tremendous gains it’s easy to become target fixated on the top, ignoring what’s below us. Focusing our efforts on what we can control, like being disciplined investors, and not on what we can’t, like the price of an individual stock, should always be the goal. Tasks like profit taking, routine savings, and dollar-cost averaging all occupy the disciplined camp.
For many individuals who have experienced substantial wealth only on paper and then the evaporation of it Into Thin Air, there is an opportunity to learn a tremendous lesson for the next time. It may seem incredibly difficult to sell stock to lock in some gains with the looming potential that a new high might be right around the corner. Taking inventory of the risks you’re really accepting when you hold onto a stock is an important exercise that just might lead to the realization you’ve strayed from your initial intended course.
Dann Ryan is a New York City-based CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Practitioner & Managing Partner at Sincerus Advisory. Click here to schedule a time to speak with Dann.